Friday, June 30, 2006

Wrong Team Favored This Weekend


This coming weekend, there is a glaring mistake. In general, the guys who set the lines are accurate. Lines usually only move a point or so all week long. This week, the guys set the Cincinnati Bengals as 1 point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Bets have poured in and now, the Steelers are favored by 3.

The bookied had it right, and now, a rare occurrence has occurred. The wrong team is favored and favored significantly. Cincinnati +3 is a gift and all experienced sharp bettors will grab Cinci +3 110 or Cinci +3.5 130 (Slightly better)

Both teams are 11-5. A quick look at the season stats show that Cinci is a slightly better passing team and Pittsburgh is a slightly better rushing team. Both have created and allowed similar number of yards. In their two games this season, the Steelers and the Bengals each won one.

But here are the intangibles:

1. Pittsburgh won their right into the playoffs on the last Sunday of the season. Pittsburgh had to play all their starters right up until the last minute of the last game. Cincinnati has had nothing to play for, for the past two weeks. Cincis starters have been sitting on the bench resting and recovering from any minor injuries.

2. Pittsburgh enters the game with an injured starting quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger has a bad thumb and can not throw the ball more than 40 yards. This significantly hinders the offense.

3. The game is in Cincinnati. In general home playoff dogs cover well over 60% of the time, but a home playoff game in Cincinnati is like snow in Miami. The fans in Cincinnati will be bonkers for this game.

Add it all up and Cinci 3 is a fair line in my line. Grab the Bengals and cash the ticket.

Good luck.